Nassau is the new NYC
Nassau is starting to lose people the way the city’s boroughs once did. The exodus rivals Manhattan’s, and the top destination is just one county away.
The net loss is big. Since 2018, Nassau has lost a net 59,121 adult residents to domestic migration, about 4.5% of its population.
It’s losing people almost as fast as Manhattan. Over the last 4 quarters, Nassau’s net loss (3.1K) came close to Manhattan’s (4.0K).
The largest share moved just one county farther out. Suffolk has taken 66,598 movers from Nassau since 2018, nearly three times as many as the runner-up destination, Queens (23,788). In the latest year, Suffolk took 5,048, again more than tripling Queens (1,616).
66,598 have moved from Nassau to Suffolk since 2018.
The Sun Belt is still a top landing spot for people leaving Nassau. Palm Beach is the #4 destination in both time ranges (8,799 since 2018 and 497 in the latest year), followed by Broward (2,573) and Wake (1,344) over the full period. In the latest year, Mecklenburg (107) and Horry (Myrtle Beach, 99) also made the top 10.
Cost is the likely push. Rents are in the top 1% of counties ($3.37 per square foot), and mortgage affordability is in the bottom 42%.
Slowed but still negative. The outflow has cooled since the 2020 to 2022 peak but never turned positive. CENSAI’s forecast is −0.21% net migration over the next 24 months.
Source: CENSAI Nassau County overview, Domestic Migration Trends and Top Migration Routes (2018 Q1 to 2026 Q2 and 2025 Q3 to 2026 Q2); county screener (2025 Q3 to 2026 Q2).
The biggest migration winner isn’t in New York
It’s a New Jersey township gaining population from nearby towns, not from New York. Staten Island is the exception.
Manchester Township is #1. Zip 08759 in Ocean County, New Jersey, had the largest net migration gain of any zip in the metro: +1,107 in 2025 and +423 in H1 2026.
Manchester netted the most residents of any NYC metro zip.
Its growth comes from its neighbors. Since 2018, all 10 of Manchester’s top origins are nearby Ocean and Monmouth County zips, led by Jackson (1,669 moves in), Toms River 08757 (1,617) and Toms River 08753 (1,510).
Jackson is the biggest net contributor. 1,669 movers came in from Jackson and 515 went back, so Manchester netted +1,154 residents.
The pattern held in the latest year. The same 10 zips were the top origins again, with 988 moves combined.
The NYC connection is Staten Island. Seven of the top 10 out-of-state origins since 2018 are Staten Island zips, accounting for 374 of 438 moves. Zip 10312 (Eltingville/Annadale) was still #1 in the latest year.
NYC is a small share. The top 10 out-of-state origins combined (438) sent about a quarter of what Jackson alone did (1,669).
Source: CENSAI fastest-growing zips (full year 2025 and 2026 Q1 to Q2); 08759 Top Migration Routes, Incoming and Outgoing, Overall and Out-of-State (2018 Q1 to 2026 Q2 and 2025 Q3 to 2026 Q2).
Suffolk’s first gain in two years
Suffolk’s turnaround is real but fragile. Its gains depend on Nassau. The losses keep going south, with the Carolinas now pulling about as hard as Florida.
Q2 2026 was a net gain. Suffolk netted +108, its first positive quarter since Q2 2024 and the end of seven straight losing quarters.
The trend has improved. From 2018 through 2021, Suffolk didn’t post a single quarter of net gain, and every quarter of 2018 lost roughly 1,000–2,150 residents. Since 2022, it has posted five gains: Q1 2022 (+1,729), Q4 2022 (+513), Q1 2024 (+339), Q2 2024 (+775), and Q2 2026 (+108).
The last 4 quarters were close to flat, and the next 8 look similar. Net migration was −936 (11.6K moved in, 12.5K moved out), or −0.1%. The forecast is close to flat too. CENSAI projects small losses every quarter through Q2 2028, none bigger than 274.
Suffolk is doing better than Nassau. Since 2018, 20,944 adults have migrated away from Suffolk, while 59,121 have left Nassau.
Nassau is Suffolk’s lifeline
Bigger inflows than all of NYC. Nassau sent 66,598 movers to Suffolk since 2018, about a third of all Suffolk inflows. That’s more than all five NYC boroughs combined (48,745).
Still true in the latest year, and growing. Nassau sent 5,048, versus 2,960 from the five boroughs combined. That’s more than 4 in 10 of Suffolk’s 11.6K inflows, up from about a third over the full period.
The flow runs about 2 to 1. Suffolk sent 29,773 back to Nassau since 2018 (2,389 last year). That nets Suffolk +36,825 from Nassau over the period and +2,659 last year.
The city flow is shrinking
Queens is the #2 source. It nets Suffolk +14,888 since 2018 (24,658 in, 9,770 out) and +1,030 last year.
The Manhattan pipeline has nearly closed. Since 2018, Manhattan netted Suffolk +3,297. Last year it was 578 in and 515 out, a net of only +63.
The leak: Florida and the Carolinas
Suffolk wins locally and loses everywhere else. Since 2018, it netted +59,209 from Nassau, Queens, Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Westchester combined. Yet it’s −20,944 overall, which means a net loss of about 80,000 to everywhere else.
Palm Beach is the #1 out-of-state destination in both periods. Suffolk sent 6,547 there since 2018 and got 3,546 back, nearly 2 to 1. Last year it was 359 out and 168 in.
The Carolinas are gaining on Florida. Last year’s top 10 destinations include three Carolina counties: Horry, SC (Myrtle Beach, 246), Brunswick, NC (129), and Mecklenburg, NC (Charlotte, 108). Only two Florida counties made it (Palm Beach and St. Lucie).
Horry is holding up better than Palm Beach. Last year’s flow to Palm Beach (359) was less than half its average year since 2018 (about 770). Horry’s (246) was about three-quarters of its average (about 321).
This ties back to the first story. Horry and Mecklenburg also show up in Nassau’s latest top 10.
Who’s moving in vs. out
Newcomers are wealthier. Average net worth is $954,285 for people moving in, versus $823,800 for people moving out. Median income is $101,300 in vs. $97,500 out.
Young adults are leaving. 18–to-30-year-olds make up 13.6% of people leaving but only 9.6% of people arriving.
Older adults are arriving. 65+ makes up 35.5% of inflows, up 28.6% since 2018, and 33.5% of the county overall.
Movers are mostly renters. 64.9% of 2026 inflows were renters, after peaking at 75.4% in 2025.
Data suggests more people are renting. Suffolk’s renter share rose from 15.0% to 20.0% between 2024 and 2026, a notable shift from the 14.6%–16.9% range from 2018 to 2024.
It’s an affluent county. 27.7% of Suffolk is in the $200K+ income bracket, more than double the national 13.1%.
New movers are older, making more money, and likely renting.
Three CRE takeaways
Multifamily: Inflows consist of about two-thirds renters, pointing to rental demand.
Senior and 55+ housing: More than a third of newcomers are 65+, and that share is rising.
Retail and services: The people arriving have about $130K more in average net worth than the people leaving.
Source: CENSAI Suffolk County Domestic Migration Trends, Top Migration Routes (Incoming and Outgoing) and Population and Demographics (2018 Q1 to 2026 Q2 and 2025 Q3 to 2026 Q2); county screener (2025 Q3 to 2026 Q2).
