About the opportunity
In the summer of 2023, a leading real estate investment firm conducted due diligence on a portfolio of mixed-use properties. The portfolio, located in a popular Sunbelt community known as a retirement destination, included upscale retail and dining. Before proceeding with the deal, the firm approached CENSAI to gain deeper insights into the market and confirm its long-term growth potential.
The challenge
The firm needed to address critical questions about the market’s population and incoming residents.
- Would population growth trends continue in the post-pandemic era?
- Did the market attract affluent individuals like other high-profile locations?
- How did the homeownership mix compare to similar successful markets?
- Did the population’s spending habits align with dining and retail developments planned for the area?
The solution
CENSAI performed an in-depth analysis of 10 surrounding zip codes to help the firm understand the target area. The analysis provided valuable insights about population migration, demographic shifts, and niche consumer behaviors.
Key insights provided
Income and wealth trends
Look-alike market comparisons
Population and migration insights
Niche consumer behavior data
Population growth and migration trends
The population surged through the pandemic, increasing by nearly 4% from Q1 2018 to Q4 2022. Net migration stayed consistently positive in all but three quarters. The decline in median age suggested that the market was attracting more than seasonal snowbirds. Younger movers were arriving and adding to the demand for housing and retail services.
Real estate market comparisons
Incoming residents were bringing high median incomes with them. Investors wanted to know how the target market compared to other successful, luxury markets across the country. CENSAI found two look-alikes that shared similar high-income trends: Palm Beach and Aspen.
Homeownership trends and renter mix
Homeowners accounted for just over 50% of inflows, closely resembling the mix in other high-value markets. In addition to purchasing power, the incoming population had potential staying power.
The insights from CENSAI armed us with data to validate the long-term potential of this market and confidently present the opportunity to our investment committee.
- Firm’s senior analyst
Consumer spending behavior
The target area had the country’s highest share of upscale credit card holders. Lifestyle data also pointed to a stronger interest in wine and gourmet foods compared to the national average. This was a good signal for investors, whose investment strategy included dining and retail development.
Confidence driven by data
CENSAI’s deep market analysis enabled the firm to build a compelling presentation about the investment opportunity. Empowered by data, the decision-makers moved forward with the deal.
From evaluating opportunities to validating decisions, CENSAI brings confidence to investment strategies. Discover real estate’s most precise and actionable insights today.
